Cleaning the Rose Off My Glasses

Hatchet
by Lucas Roebuck

Of course, the stunning defeat — no, the absolute whipping — of the Republicans nationwide in Tuesday’s election was obviously far short of what this columnist hoped. Looking back at the predictions I made just one week ago, I find the rose color that must have been tinting my glasses has moved to my cheeks. “ Embarrassingly wrong” best describes my electoral prognostications.

The Republican Party deserved to have its jaw handed to itself for many failures. In the end, the Republicans failed to bring Iraq under control, failed to control spending, failed to deal with immigration, and failed to show the voters (ironically ) that the economy is doing great. In short, the Republicans failed to lead. However, this doesn’t mean that every Republican candidate deserved to lose.

For example, I would have liked to have seen Lt. Gov. Michael Steele win his senate race in Maryland — if only to gloat over the hypocritical Democrats who worked so hard to keep a black man from winning a Senate seat. The Wall Street Journal highlighted the hypocrisy by pointing out this report:

“ Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois today urged hundreds of blacks not to vote along racial lines next week in Maryland’s Senate race. Obama, the only black U. S. senator, came to the state to rally support for Democratic Rep. Benjamin L. Cardin, who is white. Cardin’s Republican opponent, Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele, is the first black candidate ever elected statewide and has been courting black Democrats. ” — Associated Press, Nov. 3.

However, thanks to Republican incompetence, the Democrats didn’t have to present better ideas. They just had to show up. This fact alone tells you that the GOP leadership is a failure. Let the bloodletting begin (Goodbye Rumsfeld ! Goodbye Frist ! Goodbye Hastert !) Such failures don’t deserve to control the House or the Senate.

In Arkansas, I think we can safely say that the Southern realignment has stalled; Democrats have reclaimed the state as a one-party government. Democratic Party Chairman Jason Willett (who literally mortgaged his party’s future ) will now claim credit that he probably doesn’t deserve — but to the victor goes the spoils. The Arkansas GOP leadership may have some explaining to do as well. Too many Washington consultants have been feeding honey into the ears of the native Republicans.

Rep. John Boozman will become the highest ranking elected Republican in the land. I bet that is an honor Boozman isn’t welcoming with open arms.

Funny thing is, after the absolute evisceration of my party Tuesday, this self-admitted GOP hack feels fine. The GOP Congress has grown fat and lazy, too dependent on the White House, Karl Rove and conservative pundits (from Rush Limbaugh down to humble peon columnists like me ) to make magic, turn out vote and remind people how evil the Democrats are — when they had the power all along. They were the ones in control of Congress. In aggregate, the GOP Congress woke up and smelled the coffee too late. The time for a pruning has come.

Certainly, the situation in Iraq played a critical part in the turnover. And while one can make a case that this election was a referendum on Iraq, I would argue adamantly that this election wasn't a referendum against conservatism in favor of liberal progressivism. Across the county, moderate and conservative Democrats (or at least Democrats who claimed they were not liberal ) won by playing to the center. Pennsylvania may have turned out conservative Republican Rick Santorum, but they elected pro-life Bob Casey.

All good things come to an end. The glorious Republican Revolution of 1994 is over, as the Republican Congress morphed into creatures very similar to those they replaced: big government Democrats. And Republican / conservative voters were sick of it. They punished R’s on the ballot without discrimination.

The Democrats will now have their day. If the country is lucky, the Democrats will use their new power to solve some of the real issues facing this country, instead of seeking political revenge for an exile from power that, in all honesty, was self-imposed. If the Democrats do decide to browbeat the Bush administration and drag the country though more past ugliness, they may find their new congressional rule short lived.

(c) 2006 Lucas Roebuck

Hatchet’s Election Predictions

I thought I’d go ahead and make an educated stab at how things will end up on Tuesday for the constitutional offices, so here goes. I see no reason not to endorse the full GOP slate, as none of the Democratic candidates comes close to offering anything for possible Republican crossover.

Governor: Too close to call. I’m obviously pulling for Asa Hutchinson, who is far better qualified than Mike Beebe on so many levels. I think the spread may be between 5, 000 and 10, 000 votes. Can you spell R-E-C-OU-N-T ?

Lieutenant governor: Jim Holt. State Sen. Holt’s base is all fired up about his chances. Holt has momentum and his people will show up at the polls. If this race is about getting your voters to the polls (it is ), Holt will win. Holt has ballot frequency and name ID on his side, plus the big issue: immigration. I am giving Holt the advantage, 51-49. Clinton-man Bill Halter is trying to use the state legislator endorsements to put him over the top. That didn’t work for Chuck Banks or Doug Matayo in the primary, and it won’t work for Halter.

Secretary of State: Charlie Daniels over Jim Lagrone, 52-48.

Attorney General: Dustin McDaniel over Gunner DeLay, 53-47

Treasurer: Martha Shoffner over Chris Morris, 55-45

U. S. House: Democrats 228, Republicans 207

U. S. Senate: GOP 51, Democrats 49

We’ll see you back here next week. Somehow, I think the final results will be something none of us was expecting.

Huckabee's Presidential Changes

Gov. Mike Huckabee’s viability as a Republican presidential nominee hinges on what happens on Election Day next week. The amount of oxygen available to candidates for president is limited. When too many candidates show up, the suffocation begins early. Just ask Gen. Wesley Clark, who was barely able to suck in a few a breaths before his candidacy started going blue in the face. Some candidates, like Democrat Sen. Hillary Clinton and Republican Sen. John McCain, have an ample supply of political oxygen, which will keep them breathing at least until spring of 2008.

Others, like Huckabee, will have to benefit from a mixture of cunning strategy and good luck to keep from asphyxiating before the first primary debates.

In the Republican primary, breathing room is reserved for one — maybe two — social conservatives. Up until a few weeks ago, the smart money bet that Sen. George Allen, a former Virginia governor, would be the standardbearer for the millions of evangelical conservatives that power the Republican base.

That was before Allen’s reelection campaign to the U. S. Senate was fighting for its life. Both my conservative and liberal sources are now giving his Virginia seat to former Navy Secretary Jim Webb, in spite of the sexually explicit homosexual / incest passages found in Webb’s novels. If Allen cannot beat Webb, then he will have no credibility as a presidential candidate. Even if Allen wins, but barely, then who is going to want to throw money behind someone who can barely hold a Senate seat ? Clinton doesn’t have that problem.

Huckabee’s best shot at becoming the presidential nominee is going to be for both McCain and former New York City Mayor Rudi Giuliani to split the moderate and “ independent” GOP primary vote, leaving other moderates like Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with no room to breathe and Huckabee picking up the social grassroots / James Dobson voters. Outgoing Sen. Majority Leader Bill Frist and former speaker Newt Gingrich are other potential social conservative champions, but both have far more baggage than Huckabee to deal with. Huckabee has the talent to hold his own. Now all he needs is a little electoral luck to position him as the social conservative candidate.